Analysis of metapopulation models of the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the United States
During the COVID-19 pandemic, renewal equation estimates of time-varying effective reproduction numbers were useful to policymakers in evaluating the need for and impact of mitigation measures. Our model is stratified by age, 0-4, 5-9, … 75+ years, and location, the 50 states plus District of Columbia. Expressions from such heterogeneous host population models include subpopulation reproduction numbers, contributions from the above-mentioned infectious states, metapopulation numbers, subpopulation contributions, and equilibrium prevalence. The model can be used to identify optimal allocations of limited resources among subpopulations. We illustrate the utility of such analytical results by simulating two hypothetical vaccination scenarios which are compared with the actual program estimated from one of the CDC’s nationwide seroprevalence surveys conducted from mid-summer 2020 through the end of 2021.