The Dynamics and Transmission of COVID-19 epidemic in Pakistan using SEIR model and its future prediction
The aim of the present research is to model transmission of COVID-19 epidemic disease. In order to see the behavior of these infectious diseases and its future prediction we have considered the real data from WHO. The aim of the present study is to considered COVID-19 epidemic model. The total papulation is divided in four sub classes as susceptible S, exposed E, infected I and recovered class R. The infectious diseases COVID-19 is formulated using SEIR model. The real data is taken from Who and we have calculated basic reproduction number and found that numerical value is R0=2.03 which shows that the diseases is spreading within the papulation. Furthermore, stability analysis of the model at disease free equilibrium DFE and endemic equilibriums EE is performed to observe the dynamics and transmission of the model. Finally, the AB fractional model is solved numerically. To show the effect of the various embedded parameters like fractional parameter α on the model, various graphs are plotted. It is worth noting that the on base of our investigation, we have predicted the spread of disease for next 200 days.