Insights and Questions from HARMONEY, a Biophysical Economic Growth Model
The Human and Resources with MONEY (HARMONEY) model is biophysical economic growth model with stock-flow consistent consideration of physical stocks (natural resources, population) and money. It can simultaneously mimic several important long-term dynamic trends of the United States (U.S.) and global economies [King, 2022]. These trends include resource intensity, debt levels, wage levels (or wages as a share of gross domestic product), and the distribution of monetary transactions within the economy (i.e., within input-output tables). The model, for example, can help explain wage stagnation in OECD countries, most expressed in the U.S., as a policy response to maintain profits in the face of the energy constraints of the 1970s oil crises. This is despite the fact that the model is, to date, a relatively simple toy model (i.e., not calibrated to the U.S. or global economies). I will explain how I attribute this capability to the coherent integration of conservation of stocks and flows of both money and physical variables (e.g., resources, capital goods) and the incorporation of basic thermodynamic principles, such as machines require fuel to operate, into the conservation of flow (conceptually as matter and energy).
I will conclude with thoughts on how different assumptions affect important resource-economic trends (e.g., energy intensity, or resource intensity over a growth cycle).