Abstract: To prepare for the next pandemic caused by a respiratory pathogen, we embarked on a modeling project involving 1) analysis of serial surveys of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in the United States to estimate parameters needed for transmission modeling, 2) use of seroprevalence to initialize, evaluate, and improve the accuracy of a meta-population model, and 3) evaluation of expressions for the reproduction numbers and quantities that can be derived from them using parameters with which that model either fits seroprevalence or deviates in ways that we believe that we understand.

Biosketch: Dr Glasser trained as a population biologist, joined the CDC as an EIS Officer, and studied mathematical biology with the late Richard Levins. He has since modeled the transmission of pathogens, most airborne, among human hosts to design or evaluate and occasionally improve public health interventions, mostly vaccination programs, at home and abroad. He has adjunct appointments in population biology and mathematics. This work is typical in being joint with Zhilan Feng, one of her students, and two of their medical colleagues.