Optimal Commodity Trading using Spot and Forward Markets
Speaker:
Behzad Ghafouri, Western University
Date and Time:
Wednesday, February 13, 2019 - 12:00pm to 12:30pm
Location:
Fields Institute, Room 230
Abstract:
In the off-shore oil storage trade observed in contango markets, crude oil is bought cheap on the spot while simultaneously sold using a forward contract at a higher price. The trade, known as Contango-and-Carry, is profitable if the gap between the forward and spot prices is higher than the costs associated with the storage. To monetize the optionality, present research investigates the optimal decision-making to sell the oil inventory acquired initially, where the trader can select dynamically the quantity of oil to sell on the spot market and the maturity of the short forward contract at each time-step.