Practical Simulation-Based Real Options Approach to Value Multi-Staged Investment Opportunities
Real option analysis is recognized as a superior method to quantify the value of real- world investment opportunities where managerial flexibility can influence their worth, as compared to standard discounted cash-flow methods typically used in industry. However, realistic models that try to account for a number of risk factors can be mathematically complex, and in situations where many future outcomes are possible, many layers of analysis may be required. This presentation will focus on the idea of using parameterized exercise boundaries fitted to optimize the valuation of a real option in a Monte Carlo simulation setting. Theoretical aspects associated with accuracy and convergence are considered in the context of a simple Bermudan put option. We then apply the methodology to a build / abandon case study to value a greenfield mining project.