Valuation and Optimal Operation in the Ethanol Industry: Analytical Solutions and Empirical Evidence
Speaker:
Nicolas Merener, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella
Date and Time:
Wednesday, February 13, 2019 - 9:30am to 10:00am
Location:
Fields Institute, Room 230
Abstract:
Ethanol, produced out of corn, is blended with pure gasoline to produce fuel. We develop, implement, and test a model for the valuation and optimal operation of an ethanol producer. We take into account institutional settings, production capacity and government incentives to obtain closed form solutions in a real option model driven by corn and gasoline prices. Using data between 2000 and 2017 we provide empirical support for the model in its ability to reproduce certain aspects of the nonlinear behavior of ethanol prices, time varying industry output, and ethanol firm valuations.