Why do hives die? Using mathematics to understand population dynamics in honey bee colonies.
Honey bees are vital to the production of many foods which need to be pollinated by insects. Yet in many parts of the world honey bee colonies are in decline. A crucial contributor to hive well-being is the health, productivity and longevity of its foragers. When forager numbers are depleted due to stressors in the colony (such as disease or malnutrition) or in the environment (such as pesticides) there are significant effects. These include a reduction in the amount of food (nectar and pollen) that can be collected and a reduction of the colony's capacity to raise brood (eggs, larvae and pupae) to produce new adult bees to replace lost or old bees. We use a set of differential equation models to explore the effect on the hive of high forager death rates. We track the population of brood, hive bees (who work inside the hive) and foragers (who bring back food to the hive) and we track stored food. Using data from experimental research we devised functions that described the effect of the age that bees first become foragers on their success and lifespan as foragers. In particular, we examine what happens when bees become foragers at a comparatively young age and how this can lead to a sudden rapid decline of adult bees and the death of the colony.