The Market Implied Probability of Government Intervention
New contract terms for credit default swaps (CDS) on banks were introduced in 2014 to cover losses from "government intervention" and related bail-in events. For many large European banks, CDS spreads are available under both the old and new contract terms; the difference (or basis) between the two spreads measures the market price of protection against losses from certain government actions to resolve distressed banks. We investigate cross-sectional and time series properties of this basis, relative to each bank's CDS spread. We interpret a general decline in the relative basis as a market perception that governments are less likely to bailout failing banks, but that banks do not yet have sufficient bail-in debt to protect senior bond holders in case of a credit event. This is joint work with Richard Neuberg, Benjamin Kay, and Sriram Rajan