The transition risk of climate change: A suite of models approach
Economic modeling of climate change mitigation policies, including the analysis of transitional and physical risks, are still evolving. A wide range of modeling approaches are used in the literature, each with its own strengths. These include integrated energy system models (IESM), computable general equilibrium (CGE) models, the integrated assessment models (IAM), the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) and other macroeconomic models. Recognizing these strengths, the Bank of Canada uses a suite of models approach in analyzing the impacts of transition risks in Canada. The simulated scenario outcomes from MIT’s Emissions Projection and Policy Analysis (EPPA), a recursive-dynamic CGE model, are used as inputs to Bank of Canada’s DSGE models to analyze the macroeconomic implications of transitioning to low carbon economy for Canada. The illustrative stressed scenario results suggest there are significant economic risks from climate change and the move to a low-carbon economy in Canada.