Modelling the COVID-19 Pandemic Using Population Movement Data
Over the past year, statisticians and epidemiologists around the world have made it their mission to build statistical models that help understand and forecast the spread of COVID-19. Spatial models have been of particular interest because the disease spreads via person-to-person contact, meaning that regions that are close together are more likely to have similar COVID-19 case counts that regions that are far apart. However, using the actual number of trips between two regions would likely predict COVID-19 case counts much better than physical proximity. In this talk, we investigate the efficacy of using telecommunications-derived mobility data to induce spatial dependence in spatial models and apply it to two Spanish Communities’ COVID-19 case counts. We do this by extending Besag-York-Mollié models to include both physical and mobility effects. We conclude that the number of people moving between regions better explains variation in COVID-19 case counts than physical proximity data.